Impact of USSD Partial Payments

Uganda • Did partial payments increase total repayments or just shift from in-app?
Partial enabled Feb 16, 2026 5 full weeks of data (through Mar 22)

Partial Payments Are 100% Incremental

Zero overlap between USSD repaying users and mobile app users. All 1,513 USSD users (including 573 partial users) repay exclusively via USSD. In-app volume held steady. Partial payments are expanding the repayment pie.

1,209
Partial Repayments
Since Feb 16
573
Unique Partial Users
405 partial-only (70.7%)
47.7M
Partial Volume (UGX)
~$12.9K USD
39,449
Avg Partial Amount
Median: 13,000 UGX
0
Overlap with App
Zero cannibalization

Partial Repayments: Weekly Growth

Week USSD Full USSD Partial Total USSD Partial Share Partial Users Partial Vol (UGX) Avg Partial
Feb 16 Launch 150 142 292 48.6% 78 5.7M 40,340
Feb 23 447 282 729 38.7% 169 13.4M 47,375
Mar 2 Peak USSD 501 304 805 37.8% 183 14.5M 47,850
Mar 9 Partial > Full 255 262 517 50.7% 148 8.9M 34,158
Mar 16 220 209 429 48.7% 129 4.8M 22,808
Total (5 weeks) 1,573 1,199 2,772 43.3% 573 47.4M 39,449

USSD Repayments: Full vs Partial

292
Feb 16
729
Feb 23
805
Mar 2
517
Mar 9
429
Mar 16
Full repayment (existed before)
Partial repayment (NEW since Feb 16)
Partial repayments now account for ~43-51% of all USSD repayments. In week 4 (Mar 9), partial overtook full for the first time (262 vs 255). The feature has stabilized at roughly equal split with full repayments.

Cannibalization Check: In-App vs USSD

Source: BE_LOAN_REPAYMENT_RESULT (status=succeeded) by request_source

Week Mobile App USSD Total USSD Share
Jan 26 Pre-partial 5,255 261 5,516 4.7%
Feb 2 Pre-partial 4,282 205 4,487 4.6%
Feb 9 Pre-partial 2,269 19 2,288 0.8%
Feb 16 Partial ON 2,807 166 2,973 5.6%
Feb 23 4,991 419 5,411 7.7%
Mar 2 4,561 443 5,004 8.9%
Mar 9 2,580 302 2,882 10.5%
Mar 16 2,939 257 3,196 8.0%

Visual: Channel Mix Over Time

5,516
Jan 26
4,487
Feb 2
2,288
Feb 9
Partial ON
2,973
Feb 16
5,411
Feb 23
5,004
Mar 2
2,882
Mar 9
3,196
Mar 16
Mobile App
USSD (full + partial)

USSD Share of Total Repayments

4.7%
Jan 26
4.6%
Feb 2
0.8%
Feb 9
5.6%
Feb 16
7.7%
Feb 23
8.9%
Mar 2
10.5%
Mar 9
8.0%
Mar 16
USSD share roughly doubled from ~4.7% (pre-partial, full-only) to 8-10.5% post-partial. The partial payment option is the primary driver of this growth.

Pre vs Post-Partial: Comparable Weeks

Comparison Pre-Partial Total Post (App) Post (USSD) Post Total Change
High (Jan 26 vs Feb 23) 5,516 4,991 419 5,411 -1.9%
Mid (Feb 2 vs Mar 2) 4,487 4,561 443 5,004 +11.5%
Low (Feb 9 vs Mar 9) 2,288 2,580 302 2,882 +26.0%
Average 4,097 4,044 388 4,432 +8.2%
In-app repayments held steady (4,044/week post vs 4,097 pre, just -1.3%). Total repayments increased +8.2% on average. The USSD growth is additive, not substitutive.

User Segment Analysis

All USSD users vs App users (since Feb 16)
1,513
USSD Users
100% USSD-only
10,363
App Users
100% App-only
0
Users in common — completely separate populations
Partial USSD user breakdown
Partial-only: 405 (70.7%)
+ Full USSD: 168 (29.3%)
Only use partial (never full or app)
Use both partial & full USSD
405 users (70.7%) exclusively use partial repayments. They never chose full payoff and never used the app. This is a new user behavior that exists solely because of the Feb 16 feature.

Partial Amount Profile

< 10K
425 (35.2%)
10K-50K
540 (44.7%)
50K-100K
118 (9.8%)
100K-200K
65 (5.4%)
200K+
61 (5.0%)
Average39,449 UGX
Median13,000 UGX
Most common range10K-50K (44.7%)
Partial users repay small amounts: median 13K UGX (~$3.5), avg 39K (~$10.5). 80% of partial repayments are under 50K UGX. These are users paying what they can afford, likely making multiple small payments over time.

Repeat Partial Usage

RepaymentsUsers%
1x34760.6%
2x10518.3%
3-5x8815.4%
6+335.8%
39.4% repeat rate — 226 of 573 partial users came back for 2+ partial repayments. One power user made 25 partial payments in 5 weeks.

Conclusions

1. Partial payments are 100% incremental.
Zero user overlap between USSD and mobile app. All 1,513 USSD users are a separate population from the 10,363 app users. Enabling partial payments didn't move anyone from app to USSD — it activated an entirely different user segment.
2. Partial payments unlocked 405 new repaying users.
These partial-only users never used full USSD or the app. They repay small amounts (median 13K UGX) frequently — a "pay what you can" behavior that wasn't possible before Feb 16. This segment likely includes users without consistent access to smartphones or mobile data.
3. Total repayments increased +8.2%.
Comparing equivalent pre/post weeks: in-app stayed flat (~4,044 vs 4,097/week), while USSD grew from avg 162/week (full-only) to 317/week (full+partial). Net: +335 more repayments per week (+8.2%). The partial feature doubled total USSD volume.
4. USSD share grew from ~4.7% to 8-10.5% of all repayments.
Partial repayments account for ~43% of all USSD activity and are the primary driver. Without partial, USSD was a minor channel; with partial, it's a meaningful and growing contributor to collections.
5. Partial amounts are small but frequent.
Average 39K UGX, median 13K UGX. While individual amounts are low, the 39.4% repeat rate shows habitual behavior. Over time, these many small payments add up: 47.7M UGX collected in 5 weeks from partial alone, with a growing user base.

Methodology

USSD funnel dataBE_USSD_REPAYMENT_CONFIRMED from UG_PROD.DATA.BACKEND_NOTIFICATIONS, split by payment_type (full/partial). Since Feb 16, 2026.
Channel mixBE_LOAN_REPAYMENT_RESULT (status=succeeded), split by request_source (mobile_app/ussd). Pre-partial baseline: Jan 26 - Feb 15. Post: Feb 16 - Mar 22.
User overlapDistinct user_identity across events. Checked overlap between partial USSD users, full USSD users, and mobile app users independently.
Pre-partial noteUSSD existed before Feb 16 but only supported full balance repayment. Pre-partial USSD averaged ~162 repayments/week (full-only). The Feb 9 week (19 repayments) appears anomalous and is included in the baseline average.
Generated Mar 23, 2026 • Data Team • Fido Uganda